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Is Ranked Choice Good For 3rd Parties?

The Impact of Ranked Choice Voting on Third-Party Candidates in Alaska and Maine

The presence of third-party candidates in elections has been a topic of interest, as they offer alternative choices beyond the two major parties. However, their success has often been limited in traditional voting systems. We examine the impact of ranked-choice voting (RCV) on third-party candidates, particularly in the context of Alaska and Maine. By analyzing election data from both states before and after the implementation of RCV, we aim to understand the influence of this voting method on the participation and success of third-party candidates.

Alaska's Journey with RCV and Third-Party Candidates:

The 2022 US Senate Election in Alaska marked the implementation of RCV alongside a top 4 general election format. This change coincided with the absence of third-party candidates who were present in previous elections. We explore the factors that may have influenced third-party candidates' decision not to run, considering the challenges they faced in securing one of the top four positions. Additionally, we assess the impact of RCV on third-party candidates' ability to compete effectively.

Maine's Experience with RCV and Third-Party Candidates:

In Maine, RCV has been in use since 2018, offering insights into the relationship between this voting method and the success of third-party candidates. By analyzing election data from 2012 to 2022, we examine whether RCV has provided third-party candidates with a more viable path to victory in Maine's state and federal elections. We compare the outcomes and trends before and after the implementation of RCV to gain a comprehensive understanding of its impact.

Comparing Alaska and Maine:

By comparing the experiences of Alaska and Maine, we can identify similarities and differences in the impact of RCV on third-party candidates. We explore factors such as the specific RCV systems used, the number of available positions, and the dynamics of the political landscape in each state. Through this comparative analysis, we aim to provide a broader perspective on the influence of RCV on third-party candidates' participation and success.

The implementation of ranked-choice voting in Alaska and Maine has sparked interest in understanding its impact on third-party candidates. By examining the absence of third-party candidates in Alaska's 2022 US Senate Election and analyzing the experiences of Maine with RCV, We aim to shed light on the influence of this voting method. By gaining insights into the specificities of RCV systems and their consequences for third-party candidates, we can assess the potential for greater representation and inclusivity in future elections.

Examining the data from the Maine Senate and House of Representatives elections from 2016 to 2022, as well as the Alaska State Senate and House elections from 2020 to 2022, there is little evidence to suggest that RCV benefits third-party candidates. In the Maine Senate, there was an increase of 7 elected Democrats and a decrease of 7 elected Republicans, with no third-party candidates winning seats during this period. Similarly, in the Maine House of Representatives, there was an increase of 5 elected Democrats, a decrease of 5 elected Republicans, and a decrease of 1 elected Independent. These results indicate a total loss of 12 Republicans and a gain of 12 Democrats, with no significant presence of third-party candidates.

In the Alaska State Senate elections from 2020 to 2022, there was a net increase of 2 Democrats and a net decrease of 2 Republicans, while the number of independent candidates remained unchanged. In the Alaska State House elections during the same period, there was a net decrease of 1 Democrat, no change in the number of Republicans, and an increase of 1 Independent candidate. These results suggest that RCV did not lead to significant changes in the representation of third-party candidates in the Alaska State Senate and House.

The combination of the Alaska and Maine data calls into question the assumption that RCV provides a boost to third-party candidates. While it is essential to consider the specific context of each election and voting system, the absence of third-party candidates in these elections suggests that RCV alone may not be sufficient to create a favorable environment for their success.

In addition to the data previously mentioned, it is worth noting that the introduction of Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) in certain elections coincided with seat flips to the Democratic Party. In the 2018 Maine US House Election, which marked the first year of using RCV, a seat was flipped to the Democratic Party. Similarly, in the 2022 Alaska House Election, which also coincided with the first year of implementing RCV, a seat was flipped to the Democrats. These instances highlight specific races where RCV may have played a role in influencing the outcome and benefiting the Democratic Party.

When considering the overall impact of RCV on seat outcomes, it is essential to examine the broader picture. In the Maine State Legislature, a total of 12 Democrat seats were won during the specified period, indicating an increase in Democratic representation. Furthermore, two U.S. Congressional seats were won by Democrats in Maine, and two Alaska State Senate seats were also secured by Democrats. These victories suggest some level of success for the Democratic Party in these particular elections where RCV was utilized.

http://alaskapolicyforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2020-10-APF-Ranked-Choice-Voting-Report.pdf